Security analysis you can cross-examine

The AI security consultant that shows its work.

Bayescope ranks the risks most likely to hurt you — and shows the evidence behind every number. One transparent methodology, from assessment to remediation, running on your network or ours.

Reasoning chainEdge-appliance exploitation
PriorBase rate for this analogue12%
EvidenceVendor advisory · LR 3.130%
PosteriorCurrent probability34%
Illustrative. Every number walks back to its evidence — prior, likelihood ratio, posterior.
On-premisesAir-gappedLocal AI inference NIS2 · DORA · ISO 27001Multi-tenant for consultants
The problem

Scores you can't question. Advice ranked by colour code.

Security tools give you scores you can't question, alerts without context, and advice ranked by severity label. And the ones that could help most won't run where your sensitive data has to stay. You're left trusting a black box — or paying for a CISO you can't afford.

How Bayescope thinks

A single methodology, proven over fifty years — now pointed at your security.

It observes what's true today, finds what doesn't fit, names the one constraint that shapes everything, learns from how real attacks have unfolded, and ranks what's most likely to happen to you — updating as the evidence changes.

01

Observe

Build a live model of the environment — assets, identities, controls, exposure.

02

Detect anomalies

Find what doesn't fit the expected shape of a healthy environment.

03

Binding constraint

Name the chokepoint that shapes everything — the single point of most leverage.

04

Adapt analogues

Draw on real historical incidents as structural templates, not predictions.

05

Generate scenarios

Instantiate attack campaigns against this environment, staged end to end.

06

Rank by Monte Carlo

Simulate thousands of runs; rank by likelihood with confidence intervals.

07

Act

Recommend the change that reduces the most risk per euro — with the delta shown.

08

Update

New evidence moves the posteriors. The loop closes, and stays honest.

Shows its work

The security analysis you can cross-examine.

Pick any probability. Walk it back to the evidence that produced it, the prior it started from, and every update along the way. Defensible to your board, your auditor, and yourself.

The LLM never sets a probability. All quantitative work is deterministic and reproducible — the model reads documents and explains results; the mathematics is auditable Python, seeded and traceable.

Prior → Evidence → PosteriorRansomware via remote access
PriorHistorical base rate18%
EvidenceNo phishing-resistant MFA · LR 2.536%
PosteriorCurrent probability27%
Binding constraint: phishing-resistant MFA on remote access — the single change that most collapses the attacker's viable paths.
Illustrative reasoning chain. Priors and likelihood ratios are expert-reviewed content.
Ranked by likelihood90% CI
Edge exploitation34%
Ransomware (remote)27%
Cloud credential theft21%
Web-app injection14%
Illustrative. Probability shown on the full 0–100% scale, never rescaled to flatter the data.
Ranks by leverage

Not every risk is worth fixing first.

Bayescope simulates thousands of attack scenarios drawn from real historical incidents, finds the binding constraint that most reduces your risk, and tells you the single change with the biggest effect — with confidence intervals, not guesswork.

Every simulation stores its seed and full input state. Given the same inputs, the result is bit-identical — reproducible for you, your auditor, and next quarter's you.

Runs where you can't send data out

On-premises. Fully air-gapped. Local AI inference.

The entire analysis engine works with zero data leaving your building — built for regulated, sovereignty-sensitive organizations that cloud-only tools can't serve. The methodology engine needs no network egress at all; only the AI layer is optional, and it runs a model inside your install.

Zero egress engine Docker Compose, single host Local model (Ollama / vLLM) Bring-your-own LLM, encrypted at rest Tamper-evident audit trail
From assess to respond

One engine, one evidence base, five capabilities.

Compliance posture, investment prioritization, adversary emulation — and, as you grow, SOC operation and response. Everything shares the same reasoning and the same audit trail.

Assess

Posture & compliance

Verified-vs-attested control status, gap register ranked by simulated risk, mapped to NIS2, DORA, ISO 27001 and CIS.

Advise

Investment & roadmap

Risk reduction per euro across the portfolio. The funded set, sequenced into a roadmap, with the probability delta on every initiative.

Emulate

Adversary emulation

A generative adversary searches your environment for routes to its objective. "N viable paths to compromise; M eliminated; K critical" — grounded, defensive, never an attack kit.

Operate

AI SOC analyst

Deterministic triage and case correlation with a transparent autonomy ladder — the AI recommends, the human decides, every closure sampled and reviewed.

Respond

Investigate & remediate

Tiered, approval-gated playbooks with a counterfactual pre-flight — the modelled effect of an action, shown before anyone clicks approve.

The moat

Content is data

Scenarios, framework mappings and regulation packs are versioned, expert-reviewed content — editable without a deploy. The method is the product.

For consultants

Senior-analyst work across your whole client portfolio.

Multi-tenant console, white-label reports, and per-client pricing that grows with your practice — not your headcount. One expert, many clients, consistent quality.

One
methodology across every engagement
Every
probability defensible to the client's board
Zero
data leaves the regulated client's network
The consultant console
Northwind Health€1.4M
Meridian Bank€2.1M
Atlas Logistics€0.9M
Illustrative portfolio — expected loss per client, riskiest first.
See it for yourself

See Bayescope reason through your environment.

Book a methodology demo. You'll get a ranked, evidence-backed analysis — and you'll understand exactly how it got there.